MIT researchers are tackling the economic realities of fusion power, a field that has made significant strides in recent years. While scientists have successfully demonstrated the feasibility of fusion energy, the next question is whether it can be economically viable. A study co-authored by MIT professors Dennis Whyte and Andrew W. Lo proposes a framework to understand the economic viability of fusion energy power plants. The framework considers both physical inputs and construction costs, aiming to create a clear understanding of the economics involved. This is crucial, as Whyte emphasizes, if fusion energy is to have a meaningful impact on the world economy.
Fusion energy harnesses the power of stars by fusing light nuclei, often in a plasma state. The goal is to generate abundant energy while ensuring safety and licensing options. In 2022, researchers at the National Ignition Facility in Livermore, California, achieved a significant milestone by achieving a reaction with positive energy gain. This has attracted venture funding, but challenges remain in constructing viable commercial fusion energy plants.
The proposed framework has 10 parameters for evaluating economic viability. Some are scientific and physical, while most are engineering and economic. It draws inspiration from the Lawson Criterion, which describes the conditions for net energy gain from fusion plasmas. The framework focuses on the ratio of capital gained to expended, or economic Q, which must be greater than 1 for basic viability. This approach is agnostic to the fusion concept and can be scaled to any project or power output.
One motivation for the paper is to emphasize the importance of accounting for all costs in fusion research. As new funding rounds enter the industry, researchers must increasingly consider the costs of fusion reactors. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, for instance, recently secured a billion-dollar funding round and aims to open its first working power plant in Virginia in the 2030s. The industry may follow a pattern of learning by doing, similar to other deep technology sectors, where costs decrease over time.
Lo acknowledges the uncertainties and challenging decisions involved in developing the first commercial fusion reactor. However, the authors believe they have an overall approach that can help quantify these decisions. By creating a framework to evaluate economic viability, they aim to provide a quantitative understanding of the worth of different design decisions. This is crucial at this stage of fusion development, as Whyte suggests, as it fills a missing link in the field.
